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La cotización del Bitcoin lleva un año para olvidar. Ha perdido el 65% de su valor. Y justo cuando parecía que se estabilizaba entorno a los 20.000 dólares llegó el escándalo de FTX que lo ha hundido a los 16.500 dólares.

Los cripto-fans dicen que no pasa nada, que no es la primera vez que Bitcoin se hunde y que resurgirá con fuerza. Bitcoin, dicen, incluso ha sobrevivido escándalos aún mayores que la quiebra de FTX, como es el famoso robo de Mt. Gox, siendo en su día el mayor exchange del mundo y que movía el 70% de las transacciones de Bitcoin. Sin embargo esta vez puede ser diferente.
Los tipos de interés

La diferencia en esta ocasión son los tipos de interés de los Bancos Centrales, que no paran de subir en todo el mundo. Desde el surgimiento de Bitcoin hemos vivido una época extraña, donde los Bancos Centrales han mantenido los tipos de interés cercanos a cero desde 2009.

Es cierto que ha habido excepciones, como las subidas de tipos del BCE en 2011 o las subidas de la Fed superando brevemente el 2% en los años previos a la pandemia. Pero lo cierto es que prácticamente todos los Bancos Centrales del mundo occidental mantenían los tipos muy cercanos a cero.

Estos tipos tan bajos han creado situaciones extrañas en los mercados financieros, ya que el dinero ha ido a activos de más riesgo en la búsqueda de la rentabilidad. Es por ello que hemos visto cómo se han creado fondos gigantes de VC (como Softbank), inversión significativa en bonos basura o la creación de múltiples criptomonedas que supuestamente daban rentabilidad.

Sin embargo esto ha cambiado. Los tipos ya no está tan bajos. La Fed tiene unos tipos en el 4%, el BCE en el 2%, el Banco de Inglaterra en el 3% por poner algunos ejemplos. Y todos con tendencia al alza.

Los inversores no tienen que ir a sitios extraños para obtener rentabilidad

La consecuencia de todo ello es que los inversores no tienen que recurrir a activos extraños para obtener rentabilidad. También ha pasado la época en la que muchos bancos cobraban por guardar ahorros, esos tipos negativos que se vieron en el BCE y algún otro sitio ya no existen.

Por tanto, la situación excepcional que ha vivido Bitcoin desde su creación ha desparecido. La marea ha subido y al igual que muchos proyectos empresariales cuyo principal activo parecía ser la capacidad de atraer clientes a base de quemar caja (Uber, Getir, Lime y compañía) van a tener problemas, la recuperación de Bitcoin también está en duda.

Personalmente creo que Bitcoin no va a desaparecer, ha conseguido asentarse en el tiempo que ha estado entre nosotros. Pero no tengo tan claro que pueda recuperar su valor como en los anteriores bull markets. Y tampoco creo que haya mercado para el resto de criptomonedas, salvo quizá Ethereum. Cuidado porque ya no estamos viviendo en la época ZIRP.

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- La noticia

Siempre que ha habido caídas en Bitcoin en el pasado se ha recuperado con fuerza, pero esta vez puede ser distinto

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Alejandro Nieto González

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